tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 550 American Flight history → PHX 08:30 FLL 16:05 21% 6% 0.9% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:10 → BNA 10:25WN 3235 2h 20m Nashville BNA 12:45 → FLL 16:05WN 4030 7h 55m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 55m Denver DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47UA 2188 6h 47m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:00 → FLL 10:53AA 1866 7h 17m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 14m Houston IAH 12:06 → FLL 15:53UA 1706 6h 43m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 28m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546 1h 31m New York JFK 15:30 → FLL 18:54DL 1419 9h 54m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 6h 56m 97% 75%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:25 → MDW 11:40WN 3295 3h 45m Chicago MDW 15:25 → FLL 19:25WN 4899 10h 00m 100% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON