Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4991 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:35	FSD 13:43	19%	4%	0.5%	90%
AA 6452 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:54	FSD 23:57	23%	8%	0.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 14:36 → FSD 15:41DL 3538 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047	3h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → FSD 19:36DL 3578 · flown by SkyWest	7h 54m	99%	84%
American Details →	PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → FSD 11:30AA 4989 · flown by SkyWest	8h 40m	98%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:55 → FSD 12:35UA 4759 · flown by SkyWest	4h 35m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06DL 1694	7h 15m	96%	80%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 40m Denver	DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	95%	78%
American Details →	PHX 05:14 → ORD 11:00AA 3008	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 14:19 → FSD 16:13AA 4990 · flown by SkyWest	8h 59m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:16 → FSD 19:56DL 2615	7h 42m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:30AA 2786	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → FSD 00:18 +1AA 4942 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	71%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON