Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1888 at 11:22 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1888 PHX 11:22 → GEG 14:02 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 4273 PHX 22:50 → GEG 01:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1888 American Flight history →	PHX 11:22	GEG 14:02	20%	7%	0.6%	74%
WN 2491 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:45	GEG 12:20	22%	3%	0.5%	69%
AA 1785 American Flight history →	PHX 20:30	GEG 23:06	27%	10%	0.7%	70%
WN 4273 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:50	GEG 01:25	38%	10%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON