Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 19–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 693 PHX 08:46 → HNL 12:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AS 835 PHX 08:10 → HNL 11:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 693 American Flight history →	PHX 08:46	HNL 12:30	19%	4%	0.6%	81%
WN 3274 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:30	HNL 12:55	19%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 675 American Flight history →	PHX 10:48	HNL 14:27	21%	6%	0.6%	77%
AS 835 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 08:10	HNL 11:53	21%	4%	1.0%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 05:45 → LAS 06:50WN 3281	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238	8h 50m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	PHX 05:20 → SMF 07:15WN 3343	1h 15m Sacramento	SMF 08:30 → HNL 11:00WN 3781	8h 40m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	PHX 06:40 → LAS 07:50WN 3039	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 09:15 → HNL 12:40WN 4109	9h 00m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON