Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4668 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4668 PHX 05:05 → HOU 09:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4315 PHX 19:20 → HOU 23:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4668 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:05	HOU 09:40	4%	1%	1.5%	93%
WN 2833 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:05	HOU 12:40	12%	2%	1.3%	94%
WN 3067 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:25	HOU 15:05	23%	3%	1.3%	67%
WN 4203 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:25	HOU 22:05	36%	10%	0.8%	35%
WN 4315 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:20	HOU 23:55	40%	11%	0.8%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON