tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:50, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 14% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1873 United Flight history → PHX 08:50 IAD 16:17 12% 3% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 15:50 → LAX 17:27UA 5718 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:20 → IAD 05:26 +1UA 2632 10h 36m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 18:54 → LAX 20:31UA 4722 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → IAD 07:33 +1UA 2282 9h 39m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 28m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 6h 53m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 32m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:05 → IAD 11:07AA 1906 7h 31m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:37UA 5849 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Los Angeles LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 9h 48m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 3h 25m Chicago ORD 15:53 → IAD 19:02UA 2437 9h 12m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 18:59 → DEN 21:54UA 1745 2h 05m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 7h 28m 93% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 19:47 → SFO 21:50UA 2837 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 8h 43m 73% 62%
UnitedDetails → PHX 18:54 → LAX 20:31UA 4722 · flown by SkyWest 49m Los Angeles LAX 21:20 → IAD 05:26 +1UA 2632 7h 32m 14% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON