Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1318 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1318 PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2357 PHX 18:52 → IAH 23:32 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1318 United Flight history →	PHX 06:10	IAH 10:52	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2812 United Flight history →	PHX 08:30	IAH 13:06	14%	4%	0.6%	67%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	PHX 12:20	IAH 17:03	16%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 1885 United Flight history →	PHX 18:47	IAH 23:30	18%	7%	0.6%	80%
UA 2198 United Flight history →	PHX 16:12	IAH 20:55	19%	7%	0.6%	79%
AA 2710 American Flight history →	PHX 08:54	IAH 13:44	19%	5%	0.8%	75%
AA 640 American Flight history →	PHX 12:18	IAH 16:59	21%	8%	0.8%	74%
F9 4184 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 09:04	IAH 13:59	23%	8%	0.8%	78%
AA 2357 American Flight history →	PHX 18:52	IAH 23:32	27%	11%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON