Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6226 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6226 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:30	ICT 13:07	18%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 3933 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 19:06	ICT 23:26	28%	8%	0.9%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:43 → ICT 09:06AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	6h 30m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	3h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 20:10 → ICT 22:00DL 3541 · flown by SkyWest	8h 12m	98%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest	4h 27m	96%	84%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:28 → ICT 13:52AA 3592 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 13:23 → ICT 15:09DL 3595 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	97%	82%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 59m Denver	DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	97%	82%
American Details →	PHX 09:30 → DFW 14:08AA 554	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:07 → ICT 18:30AA 3691 · flown by Envoy	7h 00m	100%	80%
American Details →	PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018	3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:27 → ICT 15:51AA 3593 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 14:45 → ORD 20:27UA 1686	53m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → ICT 23:31UA 2762	6h 46m	69%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON