Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1946 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 1946 PHX 08:50 → IND 15:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 3231 PHX 19:15 → IND 01:45 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1946 American Flight history →	PHX 08:50	IND 15:30	14%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 3186 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:00	IND 15:25	16%	3%	0.5%	92%
AA 1255 American Flight history →	PHX 15:30	IND 22:01	29%	9%	0.6%	66%
WN 3231 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:15	IND 01:45	44%	15%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON