tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Austin, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2844 American Flight history → PHX 16:09 JAX 23:15 28% 10% 1.2% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 2h 45m Chicago ORD 09:10 → JAX 12:51AA 4740 · flown by Republic 9h 01m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 2h 14m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 8h 27m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392 7h 09m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:10 → JAX 10:37AA 1975 7h 01m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39UA 1451 6h 39m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:30 → AUS 09:45WN 4548 55m Austin AUS 10:40 → JAX 14:10WN 320 5h 40m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 36m Dulles IAD 17:53 → JAX 20:08UA 293 8h 18m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:02 → PHL 12:44AA 1511 3h 16m Philadelphia PHL 16:00 → JAX 18:29AA 3135 10h 27m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PHX 12:45 → BNA 18:00WN 3237 1h 00m Nashville BNA 19:00 → JAX 21:40WN 4624 5h 55m 73% 53%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:45 → JAX 21:16AA 2449 5h 57m 68% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON