Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 546 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 546 PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 136 PHX 23:06 → JFK 07:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 546 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	JFK 13:59	5%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 636 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	JFK 14:59	10%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 2689 American Flight history →	PHX 09:15	JFK 17:28	17%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 548 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:35	JFK 06:27	18%	5%	1.2%	89%
AA 1587 American Flight history →	PHX 21:50	JFK 05:47	20%	6%	1.7%	87%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:40	JFK 20:01	23%	6%	0.8%	80%
AA 832 American Flight history →	PHX 15:51	JFK 23:58	26%	8%	0.9%	76%
AA 1224 American Flight history →	PHX 12:53	JFK 21:00	28%	8%	0.8%	53%
B6 136 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 23:06	JFK 07:00	32%	10%	1.8%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 15m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON