tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 663 American Flight history → PHX 10:40 KOA 14:06 17% 5% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:20 → SMF 07:15WN 3343 2h 45m Sacramento SMF 10:00 → KOA 12:20WN 3783 10h 00m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:37UA 5849 · flown by SkyWest 1h 23m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373 8h 42m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:40 → LAS 07:50WN 3039 1h 40m Las Vegas LAS 09:30 → KOA 12:50WN 4452 9h 10m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:16 → SFO 15:19UA 1427 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 19:08 → KOA 21:45UA 731 11h 29m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 3h 23m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 12h 37m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 10h 02m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619 3h 40m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → KOA 19:31UA 1723 11h 19m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:00 → LAX 09:34AA 1892 3h 56m Los Angeles LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10AA 59 11h 10m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PHX 07:30 → LAS 08:40WN 2336 50m Las Vegas LAS 09:30 → KOA 12:50WN 4452 8h 20m 72% 62%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645 58m Seattle SEA 11:27 → KOA 14:35AS 204 10h 15m 72% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON