Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3281 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3281 PHX 05:45 → LAS 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2281 PHX 18:40 → LAS 19:45 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 16% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3281 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:45	LAS 06:50	3%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 3039 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:40	LAS 07:50	4%	1%	0.7%	95%
WN 2336 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:30	LAS 08:40	9%	2%	0.7%	95%
WN 4543 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:40	LAS 10:50	15%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 2004 American Flight history →	PHX 07:45	LAS 08:57	17%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 2037 American Flight history →	PHX 10:24	LAS 11:37	19%	5%	0.7%	90%
F9 1019 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:45	LAS 08:51	22%	7%	0.9%	84%
WN 2328 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:05	LAS 12:15	25%	6%	0.8%	50%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	PHX 13:45	LAS 14:55	31%	9%	0.7%	70%
WN 1382 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:15	LAS 14:25	33%	7%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
AA 2106 American Flight history →	PHX 20:36	LAS 21:43	34%	14%	1.1%	68%
F9 4113 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 21:58	LAS 23:13	37%	20%	1.9%	69%
AA 1022 American Flight history →	PHX 18:04	LAS 19:15	37%	16%	0.9%	44%
WN 1351 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	LAS 23:55	38%	14%	1.2%	52%
WN 611 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:50	LAS 16:00	38%	11%	0.8%	54%
WN 3283 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:00	LAS 17:10	41%	14%	0.9%	41%
WN 2281 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:40	LAS 19:45	42%	18%	0.9%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON