Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 4057 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–47%.

Safest bet that day DL 4057 PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2438 PHX 18:55 → LAX 20:20 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4057 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:32	6%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 5849 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:37	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:37	LAX 12:08	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	LAX 13:46	12%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 5718 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 15:50	LAX 17:27	14%	5%	0.6%	91%
WN 2427 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:55	LAX 09:20	14%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 2487 United Flight history →	PHX 10:06	LAX 11:31	14%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 1892 American Flight history →	PHX 08:00	LAX 09:34	14%	4%	0.6%	88%
AA 1668 American Flight history →	PHX 07:15	LAX 08:49	15%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:02	LAX 17:34	16%	6%	0.6%	86%
AA 2869 American Flight history →	PHX 10:36	LAX 12:06	16%	5%	0.6%	66%
UA 4722 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:54	LAX 20:31	16%	6%	0.7%	97%worse than usual
F9 3303 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 11:35	LAX 13:01	18%	8%	0.9%	84%
WN 4602 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:20	LAX 12:45	18%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:18	LAX 21:50	18%	6%	0.8%	84%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	PHX 14:55	LAX 16:19	22%	7%	0.6%	79%
AA 2930 American Flight history →	PHX 16:45	LAX 18:12	27%	9%	0.6%	68%
AA 3204 American Flight history →	PHX 20:38	LAX 22:07	30%	9%	0.7%	67%
WN 868 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	LAX 00:10	41%	13%	0.9%	50%
WN 2388 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:50	LAX 17:10	43%	9%	0.6%	32%
WN 2438 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:55	LAX 20:20	47%	13%	0.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON