Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 165 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 165 PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 149 PHX 16:40 → LGB 17:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 165 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:35	LGB 09:55	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 2505 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:40	LGB 12:55	18%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 4352 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:15	LGB 20:35	34%	10%	0.6%	59%
WN 149 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:40	LGB 17:55	35%	9%	0.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON