Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 697 American Flight history →	PHX 10:49	LIH 14:36	21%	5%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PHX 06:40 → LAS 07:50WN 3039	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 09:25 → LIH 12:45WN 2262	9h 05m	100%	83%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:37UA 5849 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295	8h 44m	95%	82%
United Details →	PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619	3h 40m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	11h 30m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	10h 04m	99%	79%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 08m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	12h 37m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	12h 39m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	PHX 09:40 → OAK 11:35WN 2680	2h 10m Oakland	OAK 13:45 → LIH 16:10WN 3058	9h 30m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	PHX 09:20 → OGG 12:40WN 2138	1h 15m Kahului	OGG 13:55 → LIH 14:50WN 3101	8h 30m	92%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645	59m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	10h 20m	74%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON