tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4329 at 15:50, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4329 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 15:50 LIT 20:47 22% 6% 0.7% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:12 → LIT 08:35AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 5h 59m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027 7h 27m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:56 → LIT 13:18AA 3636 · flown by Envoy 6h 08m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 1h 35m Chicago ORD 08:00 → LIT 09:59AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 7h 09m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 09:30 → DFW 14:08AA 554 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:43 → LIT 17:05AA 4008 · flown by Envoy 5h 35m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → LIT 15:58UA 5340 · flown by SkyWest 7h 48m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:15 → DEN 09:00WN 1706 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:55 → LIT 15:05WN 4302 6h 50m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:04 → LIT 23:23AA 3362 · flown by Envoy 7h 48m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252 47m Chicago ORD 16:59 → LIT 18:59AA 4062 · flown by Envoy 6h 44m 69% 57%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 11:05 → LAS 12:15WN 2328 55m Las Vegas LAS 13:10 → LIT 18:20WN 586 5h 15m 73% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON