tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4892 at 19:00, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4892 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 19:00 MAF 22:48 28% 11% 0.9% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:05 → DAL 09:25WN 1357 2h 20m Dallas DAL 11:45 → MAF 12:55WN 4579 5h 50m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:40 → LAS 07:50WN 3039 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 09:50 → MAF 14:00WN 1277 5h 20m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:32 → MAF 13:49AA 3652 · flown by Envoy 6h 39m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:30 → IAH 13:06UA 2812 3h 29m Houston IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 43m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:25 → MAF 08:50AA 5013 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 7h 23m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → PHX 10:55 → DAL 15:20WN 3255 50m Dallas DAL 16:10 → MAF 17:25WN 488 4h 30m 71% 51%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 17:10 → DEN 20:00WN 4758 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → MAF 23:45WN 3473 4h 35m 62% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON