Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2563 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2563 PHX 06:05 → MCI 10:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3291 PHX 16:00 → MCI 20:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2563 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:05	MCI 10:35	3%	1%	0.5%	97%
AA 2058 American Flight history →	PHX 08:35	MCI 13:26	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 3290 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:30	MCI 15:00	17%	3%	0.5%	78%
AA 623 American Flight history →	PHX 19:32	MCI 00:13	26%	9%	0.9%	69%
WN 3459 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 20:55	MCI 01:35	33%	13%	0.6%	40%
WN 3291 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:00	MCI 20:35	37%	10%	0.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON