Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 17–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1817 PHX 07:55 → MCO 15:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2105 PHX 08:50 → MCO 16:20 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1817 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:55	MCO 15:15	17%	5%	17.5%	87%
WN 4508 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 23:05	MCO 06:20	19%	7%	9.2%	81%
F9 1086 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 00:12	MCO 07:37	22%	8%	15.3%	76%
AA 563 American Flight history →	PHX 21:51	MCO 05:00	23%	8%	13.8%	73%
AA 2105 American Flight history →	PHX 08:50	MCO 16:20	23%	7%	17.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON