Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3295 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3295 PHX 06:25 → MDW 11:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2521 PHX 19:15 → MDW 00:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 8% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3295 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:25	MDW 11:40	4%	1%	0.7%	90%
WN 2723 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:00	MDW 10:20	5%	1%	0.7%	85%
WN 3296 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:30	MDW 12:50	8%	1%	0.7%	77%
WN 4066 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:00	MDW 15:15	19%	3%	0.7%	55%
WN 3297 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:35	MDW 19:55	28%	8%	0.6%	42%
WN 4085 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 15:55	MDW 21:15	32%	10%	0.6%	62%
WN 2521 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:15	MDW 00:40	34%	12%	0.7%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON