Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3923 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 18:52	MEM 23:59	28%	8%	0.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	8h 27m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	PHX 06:15 → DEN 09:00WN 1706	1h 30m Denver	DEN 10:30 → MEM 13:55WN 4698	5h 40m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	9h 07m	99%	85%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 13m Denver	DEN 11:05 → MEM 14:26UA 1112	6h 26m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	3h 12m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → MEM 17:02DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	9h 02m	99%	84%
American Details →	PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → MEM 17:36AA 4647 · flown by Republic	8h 36m	100%	84%
American Details →	PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 08:05 → MEM 09:58AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	95%	84%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:16AA 3676 · flown by Envoy	7h 06m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:30AA 2786	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	71%	57%
United Details →	PHX 14:45 → ORD 20:27UA 1686	53m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	6h 36m	69%	56%
Southwest Details →	PHX 15:25 → DEN 18:10WN 3265	55m Denver	DEN 19:05 → MEM 22:30WN 2225	5h 05m	56%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON