Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6253 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:11	MFR 12:50	18%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 4915 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 21:10	MFR 23:38	25%	9%	1.1%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	98%	90%
Alaska Details →	PHX 16:00 → SEA 19:06AS 289	3h 34m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	8h 04m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:23 → SEA 14:30AS 603	3h 17m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	7h 50m	97%	81%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 28m Denver	DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337	7h 05m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:00 → PDX 09:43AS 511	57m Portland	PDX 10:40 → MFR 11:53AS 3300 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	89%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 17:40 → SEA 20:46DL 2442	49m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	65%	54%
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645	51m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → MFR 12:50AS 3088 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	57%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON