Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2654 at 23:05 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2654 PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 496 PHX 16:24 → MIA 23:54 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2654 American Flight history →	PHX 23:05	MIA 06:28	19%	6%	2.1%	80%
AA 2205 American Flight history →	PHX 22:00	MIA 05:22	22%	8%	2.0%	68%
AA 1184 American Flight history →	PHX 08:49	MIA 16:12	26%	6%	1.3%	56%
AA 1983 American Flight history →	PHX 12:52	MIA 20:28	30%	10%	1.4%	72%
AA 496 American Flight history →	PHX 16:24	MIA 23:54	32%	9%	1.2%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 06:00 → MIA 10:00AA 3055	6h 24m	85%	71%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:32 → MIA 14:30AA 899	6h 20m	90%	59%
American Details →	PHX 12:30 → MSY 17:34AA 2191	1h 23m New Orleans	MSY 18:57 → MIA 21:59AA 2201	6h 29m	90%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON