Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4104 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4104 PHX 07:40 → MKE 13:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 3300 PHX 19:55 → MKE 01:20 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4104 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:40	MKE 13:00	9%	2%	0.5%	76%
AA 1369 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	MKE 21:38	23%	10%	0.7%	74%
WN 3300 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:55	MKE 01:20	34%	12%	0.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON