Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3720 at 10:04 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3720 PHX 10:04 → MRY 12:05 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2884 PHX 16:36 → MRY 18:28 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:04	MRY 12:05	17%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 6268 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:43	MRY 15:38	23%	9%	0.6%	75%
AA 6374 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:37	MRY 22:33	24%	9%	0.8%	79%
AA 2884 American Flight history →	PHX 16:36	MRY 18:28	29%	10%	0.9%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON