tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 888 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 888 American Flight history → PHX 08:30 MSN 14:02 13% 3% 0.6% 90%
AA 1835 American Flight history → PHX 18:50 MSN 00:13 32% 10% 0.7% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:14 → ORD 11:00AA 3008 2h 17m Chicago ORD 13:17 → MSN 14:25AA 3716 · flown by Envoy 7h 11m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 08m Denver DEN 11:00 → MSN 14:10UA 2368 6h 10m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599 8h 06m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009 2h 11m Charlotte CLT 14:20 → MSN 15:39AA 5307 · flown by PSA 8h 39m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → MSN 14:04DL 4032 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 54m Detroit DTW 20:37 → MSN 20:59DL 3544 · flown by SkyWest 8h 04m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → ORD 14:21AA 319 2h 39m Chicago ORD 17:00 → MSN 18:12AA 3717 · flown by Envoy 7h 42m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → ORD 19:10UA 2628 2h 50m Chicago ORD 22:00 → MSN 23:12UA 630 7h 44m 95% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:15 → ORD 16:12AA 2252 48m Chicago ORD 17:00 → MSN 18:12AA 3717 · flown by Envoy 5h 57m 70% 58%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:52UA 1748 53m Chicago ORD 17:45 → MSN 18:56UA 4740 · flown by SkyWest 5h 44m 75% 57%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:15 → PHL 15:01AA 2927 48m Philadelphia PHL 15:49 → MSN 17:22AA 5532 · flown by PSA 8h 07m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON