tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2191 American Flight history → PHX 12:30 MSY 17:34 28% 9% 1.4% 80%
WN 2421 Southwest Flight history → PHX 12:55 MSY 17:55 33% 8% 1.0% 45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 3h 05m Chicago ORD 09:30 → MSY 12:05AA 4748 · flown by Republic 9h 15m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:45 → LAS 06:50WN 3281 1h 25m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → MSY 13:50WN 2280 6h 05m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 58m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 5h 39m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 48m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100 5h 47m 93% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:30 → AUS 09:45WN 4548 1h 05m Austin AUS 10:50 → MSY 12:15WN 366 4h 45m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 1h 37m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 7h 59m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:10 → BNA 10:25WN 3235 2h 20m Nashville BNA 12:45 → MSY 14:20WN 595 7h 10m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:01 → MSY 08:30AA 2183 5h 54m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:51 → SFO 10:54UA 2449 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 12:08 → MSY 18:33UA 246 7h 42m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → CLT 15:48AA 1688 46m Charlotte CLT 16:34 → MSY 17:41AA 2203 7h 11m 66% 45%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:49 → MIA 16:12AA 1184 55m Miami MIA 17:07 → MSY 18:17AA 2201 7h 28m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON