Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4838 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4838 PHX 05:15 → OAK 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3306 PHX 21:25 → OAK 23:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4838 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:15	OAK 07:10	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 3303 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	OAK 09:45	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 2680 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:40	OAK 11:35	13%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 3305 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:30	OAK 18:25	34%	9%	0.6%	67%
WN 3306 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:25	OAK 23:20	36%	13%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON