Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 847 PHX 08:35 → OGG 12:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2138 PHX 09:20 → OGG 12:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 847 American Flight history →	PHX 08:35	OGG 12:06	16%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 645 American Flight history →	PHX 11:03	OGG 14:32	17%	6%	0.7%	87%
WN 2138 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:20	OGG 12:40	18%	3%	0.7%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 05:20 → SMF 07:15WN 3343	1h 45m Sacramento	SMF 09:00 → OGG 11:20WN 479	9h 00m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	PHX 06:40 → LAS 07:50WN 3039	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → OGG 12:35WN 1457	8h 55m	100%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:37UA 5849 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 09:00 → OGG 11:46UA 417	8h 46m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON