Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3309 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3309 PHX 11:00 → OKC 15:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4087 PHX 19:35 → OKC 23:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3309 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:00	OKC 15:10	15%	3%	0.5%	88%
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:41	OKC 13:12	17%	7%	0.6%	82%
AA 6276 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:16	OKC 17:35	21%	12%	0.6%	80%
AA 6320 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:56	OKC 23:15	26%	12%	0.7%	71%
WN 4087 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:35	OKC 23:50	38%	14%	0.6%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON