Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4470 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4470 PHX 07:15 → OMA 11:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 3311 PHX 21:25 → OMA 01:55 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4470 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:15	OMA 11:40	9%	2%	0.5%	86%
WN 3129 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	OMA 16:45	21%	5%	0.5%	74%
AA 6420 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:14	OMA 23:58	22%	11%	0.7%	50%
AA 2227 American Flight history →	PHX 12:43	OMA 17:20	23%	9%	0.6%	76%
WN 3311 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:25	OMA 01:55	34%	11%	0.8%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON