Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 759 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 759 PHX 07:50 → ONT 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 2862 PHX 21:00 → ONT 22:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 759 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:50	ONT 09:05	6%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 431 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:05	ONT 11:20	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2244 American Flight history →	PHX 10:45	ONT 12:02	16%	6%	0.6%	76%
WN 670 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:55	ONT 15:05	28%	6%	0.5%	71%
AA 2639 American Flight history →	PHX 17:04	ONT 18:18	28%	10%	0.8%	62%
AA 1238 American Flight history →	PHX 20:30	ONT 21:43	33%	11%	0.8%	71%
WN 223 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:55	ONT 00:10	38%	11%	1.1%	77%worse than usual
WN 2862 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:00	ONT 22:15	39%	14%	0.9%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON