Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 356 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 356 PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2786 PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 356 United Flight history →	PHX 06:50	ORD 12:28	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 3008 American Flight history →	PHX 05:14	ORD 11:00	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 2765 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	ORD 12:51	10%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 1148 American Flight history →	PHX 00:50	ORD 06:25	11%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 319 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	ORD 14:21	17%	5%	0.8%	86%
UA 1210 United Flight history →	PHX 17:49	ORD 23:31	18%	7%	0.6%	79%
UA 1748 United Flight history →	PHX 11:12	ORD 16:52	18%	6%	0.6%	78%
AA 2252 American Flight history →	PHX 10:15	ORD 16:12	21%	7%	0.8%	78%
UA 2628 United Flight history →	PHX 13:28	ORD 19:10	24%	8%	0.6%	62%
UA 1686 United Flight history →	PHX 14:45	ORD 20:27	24%	8%	0.6%	61%
AA 3137 American Flight history →	PHX 19:09	ORD 00:51	25%	9%	1.0%	58%
AA 435 American Flight history →	PHX 17:38	ORD 23:30	25%	10%	0.9%	65%
AA 338 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	ORD 18:08	25%	9%	0.8%	70%
AA 2786 American Flight history →	PHX 15:28	ORD 21:30	29%	11%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON