Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 511 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–48%.

Safest bet that day AS 511 PHX 07:00 → PDX 09:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1682 PHX 18:55 → PDX 21:30 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 18% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 511 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 07:00	PDX 09:43	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 4092 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:50	PDX 10:25	11%	2%	0.5%	81%
AA 1625 American Flight history →	PHX 10:05	PDX 12:49	19%	5%	0.6%	83%
AS 742 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:04	PDX 16:46	19%	5%	0.6%	87%
AS 662 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 17:48	PDX 20:30	22%	6%	0.6%	84%
AA 2288 American Flight history →	PHX 14:00	PDX 16:38	25%	8%	0.6%	67%
WN 2310 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:35	PDX 14:10	26%	4%	0.5%	73%
AS 650 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 20:56	PDX 23:38	26%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 561 American Flight history →	PHX 20:25	PDX 23:08	28%	9%	0.8%	68%
WN 3175 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	PDX 01:25	42%	10%	1.1%	67%
WN 1682 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:55	PDX 21:30	48%	12%	0.7%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON