Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1511 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1511 PHX 05:02 → PHL 12:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1803 PHX 12:53 → PHL 20:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1511 American Flight history →	PHX 05:02	PHL 12:44	6%	3%	0.7%	97%
AA 2927 American Flight history →	PHX 07:15	PHL 15:01	12%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 2585 American Flight history →	PHX 23:05	PHL 06:39	14%	5%	1.3%	87%
AA 1188 American Flight history →	PHX 22:02	PHL 05:35	20%	7%	1.2%	73%
AA 2300 American Flight history →	PHX 08:54	PHL 16:42	20%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 3163 American Flight history →	PHX 16:15	PHL 23:56	24%	9%	0.9%	70%
AA 1803 American Flight history →	PHX 12:53	PHL 20:39	27%	9%	0.7%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 07:30 → MDW 12:50WN 3296	50m Chicago	MDW 13:40 → PHL 16:45WN 4351	6h 15m	85%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON