tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2871 American Flight history → PHX 15:46 PIT 22:51 26% 10% 0.6% 78%
WN 4804 Southwest Flight history → PHX 16:55 PIT 23:55 41% 14% 0.5% 36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 3h 20m Chicago ORD 09:45 → PIT 12:31AA 4484 · flown by Republic 8h 41m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:00 → MDW 10:20WN 2723 3h 15m Chicago MDW 13:35 → PIT 16:00WN 2866 8h 00m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546 1h 11m New York JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15DL 5685 · flown by Republic 8h 15m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 7h 05m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:37UA 5849 · flown by SkyWest 1h 23m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → PIT 16:51UA 2039 7h 51m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 15:25 → PIT 18:40DL 3709 · flown by SkyWest 8h 55m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:00 → PIT 10:47AA 2290 7h 11m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:45 → ORD 20:27UA 1686 53m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 69% 59%
AmericanDetails → PHX 09:30 → DFW 14:08AA 554 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:57 → PIT 18:43AA 2307 6h 13m 74% 55%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 11:05 → LAS 12:15WN 2328 50m Las Vegas LAS 13:05 → PIT 20:20WN 4491 6h 15m 69% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON