Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2330 at 10:40 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2330 PHX 10:40 → PSP 11:50 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2333 PHX 17:47 → PSP 18:52 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2330 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	PSP 11:50	21%	6%	0.7%	88%
AA 4922 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:23	PSP 21:32	30%	10%	0.8%	72%
AA 2929 American Flight history →	PHX 15:05	PSP 16:10	32%	7%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 2333 American Flight history →	PHX 17:47	PSP 18:52	34%	11%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON