Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4076 at 08:30, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4076 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 08:30	RAP 12:10	12%	2%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:20 → RAP 09:47AA 3768 · flown by Envoy	8h 11m	98%	88%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 23m Denver	DEN 11:15 → RAP 12:29UA 1623	5h 29m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHX 05:14 → ORD 11:00AA 3008	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 13:20 → RAP 14:55AA 3767 · flown by Envoy	8h 41m	99%	85%
American Details →	PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:58 → RAP 16:20AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	7h 50m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → RAP 15:29DL 3851 · flown by SkyWest	7h 44m	98%	84%
American Details →	PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → RAP 21:31AA 3567 · flown by Envoy	8h 12m	98%	83%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → RAP 12:11AA 3891 · flown by Envoy	6h 01m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	95%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHX 09:30 → DFW 14:08AA 554	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:58 → RAP 16:20AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	5h 50m	74%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON