tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3770 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 10:28 RDM 13:07 11% 2% 0.6% 81%
AA 3597 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 20:26 RDM 22:59 19% 5% 0.8% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → RDM 11:35DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest 5h 35m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → PHX 15:50 → LAX 17:27UA 5718 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:20 → RDM 23:35UA 5662 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 16:00 → SEA 19:06AS 289 3h 47m Seattle SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon 7h 59m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → RDM 12:53UA 2082 6h 53m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:00 → PDX 09:43AS 511 1h 02m Portland PDX 10:45 → RDM 11:47AS 3073 · flown by SkyWest 4h 47m 91% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 2h 33m Seattle SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662 1h 25m Portland PDX 21:55 → RDM 22:45AS 2057 · flown by Horizon 4h 57m 89% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 18:53 → SEA 22:00AS 611 53m Seattle SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 54% 46%
UnitedDetails → PHX 07:24 → SFO 09:27UA 2209 46m San Francisco SFO 10:13 → RDM 11:57UA 2153 4h 33m 56% 43%
UnitedDetails → PHX 18:54 → LAX 20:31UA 4722 · flown by SkyWest 49m Los Angeles LAX 21:20 → RDM 23:35UA 5662 · flown by SkyWest 4h 41m 14% 12%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON