Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 543 PHX 09:00 → RDU 16:24 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest WN 706 PHX 12:30 → RDU 19:40 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 543 American Flight history →	PHX 09:00	RDU 16:24	22%	5%	0.7%	58%
AA 2332 American Flight history →	PHX 15:41	RDU 22:58	31%	11%	0.8%	74%
WN 706 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:30	RDU 19:40	32%	8%	0.6%	44%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 07:50 → BNA 13:10WN 719	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 14:20 → RDU 16:55WN 653	6h 05m	94%	76%
Southwest Details →	PHX 06:15 → DEN 09:00WN 1706	1h 00m Denver	DEN 10:00 → RDU 15:25WN 1691	6h 10m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	52m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	6h 05m	88%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON