Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 146 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 146 PHX 07:50 → RNO 09:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 3331 PHX 16:35 → RNO 18:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 146 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:50	RNO 09:40	7%	1%	0.6%	88%
AA 1405 American Flight history →	PHX 07:21	RNO 09:12	13%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 13:57	RNO 15:51	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 2418 American Flight history →	PHX 10:12	RNO 12:05	18%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 4053 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 16:37	RNO 18:32	19%	5%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
WN 656 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	RNO 00:35	30%	10%	1.0%	56%
AA 1765 American Flight history →	PHX 20:38	RNO 22:25	30%	8%	0.8%	70%
WN 3331 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:35	RNO 18:20	36%	9%	0.7%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON