Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4119 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 4119 PHX 07:00 → SAN 08:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3324 PHX 18:15 → SAN 19:25 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4119 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:00	SAN 08:15	9%	2%	0.8%	100%
WN 2771 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:55	SAN 09:10	17%	3%	0.8%	71%
AA 2461 American Flight history →	PHX 07:34	SAN 08:51	20%	5%	0.7%	79%
WN 1677 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:15	SAN 10:35	21%	4%	0.8%	72%
AA 2477 American Flight history →	PHX 10:30	SAN 11:47	25%	7%	0.7%	68%
AS 3028 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:05	SAN 14:33	26%	11%	1.7%	80%
WN 3322 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:05	SAN 11:20	29%	5%	0.7%	52%
AA 2470 American Flight history →	PHX 14:16	SAN 15:26	31%	10%	0.7%	63%
WN 3323 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:00	SAN 13:10	34%	8%	0.8%	35%
WN 4846 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:45	SAN 13:55	35%	8%	0.8%	25%
AA 2466 American Flight history →	PHX 17:06	SAN 18:18	35%	10%	0.9%	46%
AS 3060 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:53	SAN 20:23	36%	12%	3.2%	71%
AA 559 American Flight history →	PHX 20:20	SAN 21:34	36%	11%	1.0%	62%
F9 1571 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 14:16	SAN 15:27	36%	16%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
WN 897 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	SAN 14:45	38%	9%	0.8%	64%
WN 3426 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:55	SAN 23:10	45%	15%	1.1%	55%
WN 3017 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:30	SAN 17:40	48%	13%	0.8%	29%
WN 2580 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:55	SAN 21:05	48%	15%	0.8%	12%
WN 3324 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:15	SAN 19:25	52%	14%	0.9%	36%
AS 2045 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 07:11	SAN 08:36	19%	5%	15.7%	81%
AS 2028 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 15:13	SAN 16:35	50%	15%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON