Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4081 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4081 PHX 07:55 → SAT 12:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2254 PHX 16:25 → SAT 20:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4081 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:55	SAT 12:05	7%	2%	0.5%	96%
WN 2986 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:00	SAT 15:10	14%	4%	0.5%	73%
AA 450 American Flight history →	PHX 09:46	SAT 14:03	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
AA 2497 American Flight history →	PHX 12:30	SAT 16:42	19%	8%	0.6%	75%
AA 3832 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 19:38	SAT 23:58	23%	7%	0.9%	80%
WN 3328 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:05	SAT 01:20	33%	11%	0.8%	48%
WN 2254 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:25	SAT 20:35	33%	12%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON