Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4031 at 07:33 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4031 PHX 07:33 → SBA 09:10 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1731 PHX 20:27 → SBA 21:58 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4031 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:33	SBA 09:10	14%	3%	0.8%	84%
AA 4993 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:04	SBA 11:40	17%	8%	0.8%	75%
AA 2515 American Flight history →	PHX 17:02	SBA 18:33	26%	10%	0.9%	73%
AA 1731 American Flight history →	PHX 20:27	SBA 21:58	28%	11%	1.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON