tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3329 at 13:05, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3329 Southwest Flight history → PHX 13:05 SDF 19:30 31% 6% 0.5% 83%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → DFW 05:09AA 1818 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:25 → SDF 10:39AA 3788 · flown by Envoy 7h 03m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:00 → MDW 10:20WN 2723 2h 25m Chicago MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473 6h 55m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 1h 35m Chicago ORD 08:00 → SDF 10:36AA 4704 · flown by Republic 6h 46m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 53m Denver DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479 5h 28m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 57m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191 3h 46m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 10h 10m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765 3h 00m Chicago ORD 15:51 → SDF 18:27AA 4668 · flown by Republic 8h 27m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 08m Dulles IAD 17:25 → SDF 19:18UA 3538 · flown by Republic 7h 28m 93% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:45 → ORD 20:27UA 1686 58m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 74% 61%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:40 → EWR 19:35UA 1190 50m Newark EWR 20:25 → SDF 22:50UA 3512 · flown by Republic 8h 10m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON