Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 799 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–54%.

Safest bet that day AS 799 PHX 06:02 → SEA 09:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 3585 PHX 18:35 → SEA 21:30 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 799 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 06:02	SEA 09:08	10%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 1570 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:59	SEA 10:05	10%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 2374 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:19	SEA 12:30	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	PHX 12:15	SEA 15:25	13%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 3440 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 11:32	SEA 14:46	16%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 3793 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:20	SEA 10:36	18%	4%	0.6%	86%
AS 603 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 11:23	SEA 14:30	19%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:54	SEA 19:02	20%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 4035 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 14:35	SEA 17:44	21%	7%	0.6%	83%
AS 637 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 09:10	SEA 12:17	21%	4%	0.7%	86%
WN 814 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 10:45	SEA 13:50	21%	4%	0.5%	81%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:40	SEA 20:46	22%	5%	0.8%	82%
WN 3330 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 08:35	SEA 11:40	22%	3%	0.6%	72%
AS 645 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 07:20	SEA 10:29	25%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 17:55	SEA 21:05	25%	8%	0.7%	84%
AS 425 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:37	SEA 17:43	29%	8%	0.7%	76%
AS 611 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 18:53	SEA 22:00	35%	10%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
AS 289 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 16:00	SEA 19:06	37%	9%	0.8%	67%
WN 3429 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:45	SEA 01:45	44%	15%	1.0%	54%
WN 3585 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 18:35	SEA 21:30	54%	16%	0.7%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON