Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2619 at 11:12 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 2619 PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest WN 1098 PHX 22:50 → SFO 00:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2619 United Flight history →	PHX 11:12	SFO 13:15	25%	9%	0.6%	66%
UA 1427 United Flight history →	PHX 13:16	SFO 15:19	26%	11%	0.6%	54%
UA 2209 United Flight history →	PHX 07:24	SFO 09:27	27%	9%	0.6%	60%
AA 4911 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 07:16	SFO 09:38	27%	13%	0.5%	39%
F9 1191 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 14:02	SFO 16:11	31%	18%	0.9%	64%
AA 1613 American Flight history →	PHX 17:08	SFO 19:09	32%	13%	0.6%	52%
AA 2860 American Flight history →	PHX 14:05	SFO 16:05	32%	11%	0.6%	48%
AA 3199 American Flight history →	PHX 10:53	SFO 12:58	33%	10%	0.6%	31%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	PHX 19:47	SFO 21:50	35%	14%	0.6%	19%
WN 4603 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:55	SFO 12:00	36%	12%	0.6%	36%
UA 2449 United Flight history →	PHX 08:51	SFO 10:54	36%	11%	0.6%	25%
WN 3334 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:30	SFO 14:25	37%	12%	0.6%	46%
AA 686 American Flight history →	PHX 20:23	SFO 22:23	37%	14%	0.7%	46%
WN 1098 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:50	SFO 00:55	39%	17%	1.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON