Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2978 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2978 PHX 07:45 → SJC 09:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3337 PHX 19:45 → SJC 21:40 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2978 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	SJC 09:40	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 3336 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:40	SJC 11:35	11%	3%	0.6%	96%
AA 3325 American Flight history →	PHX 10:04	SJC 11:59	18%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 1197 American Flight history →	PHX 20:51	SJC 22:41	27%	9%	0.9%	62%
WN 4102 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:40	SJC 16:25	27%	7%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
AA 2576 American Flight history →	PHX 16:40	SJC 18:31	28%	9%	0.8%	67%
WN 3337 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:45	SJC 21:40	36%	13%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON