Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1535 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1535 PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4792 PHX 21:30 → SLC 00:10 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1535 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SLC 08:37	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 3339 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	SLC 10:25	6%	1%	0.5%	96%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	SLC 11:37	9%	4%	0.5%	91%
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:45	SLC 12:21	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:20	SLC 15:58	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:05	SLC 19:43	12%	5%	0.6%	88%
F9 3872 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 09:18	SLC 11:56	14%	5%	0.8%	93%
WN 147 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:40	SLC 14:10	18%	3%	0.5%	65%
AA 4089 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:23	SLC 18:01	18%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 1451 Delta Flight history →	PHX 19:20	SLC 21:59	18%	6%	0.7%	87%
F9 2526 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 13:36	SLC 16:17	19%	7%	0.8%	85%
AA 4921 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:20	SLC 23:03	20%	8%	0.6%	73%
WN 4867 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:00	SLC 19:35	29%	9%	0.5%	46%
WN 849 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:50	SLC 01:30	32%	11%	1.0%	40%
WN 4792 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:30	SLC 00:10	32%	12%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON